Exit Poll in PP-30 (Sargodha-III) By-Elections’ shows PML (N) Supported Candidate has clear lead
Sunday (March 4, 2018)
The exit poll exercise conducted by the Coalition for Elections and Democracy (CED) in bye-elections of Provincial Assembly Constituency PP-30 indicates that Independent candidate backed by PML-N has a clear lead. PML-N supported candidate bagged 55.40% votes as against 26.32% votes bagged by PTI candidate. The survey was conducted on a sample size of 1444 voters; including 731 males, 713 females. The voters who abstained to share their view were 12.19% of the total sample. The responses were collected from 40% of total 137 polling stations set up in the constituency. Total number of Registered voters in the constituency is 1,73,919 including 98,145 male voters and 75,774 female voters. Total number of polling stations set up in the constituency is 137 with 417 polling booths, 228 for male voters and 189 for female voters. This report presents the responses of the voters from sampled polling stations taken throughout the day. Candidates without party affiliation continued dismal performance in the Punjab by claiming only a total of 6.1% of the polled votes.
The analysis of exit poll data shows some interesting trends. The gender breakdown of the exit poll result shows that PMLN candidate attracted more females than males. As per the responses of the voters participating in the exit poll PMLN obtained 52% of total male votes as against 59% of the total female votes. On contrary, the second candidate in the race from PTI received backing of 29% and 24% of total male and female votes respectively. Elaborating more on the voter mix the exit poll shows that 47.50% of voters choosing PML(N) backed independent candidate were male as compared to 52.50% of females. Moreover 55.79% of voters voting for the PTI candidate were male and 44.21% were female.
The exit poll also presents interesting data about educational qualifications of the voters. There has been a slight shift in trends in this by-poll as compared to the by-elections held in last few months. In PP-30 PMLN seems to be a clear choice for almost all educational groups including illiterate, primary, matric, graduation and masters. The support enjoyed by the PML(N) backed candidates remained 63.31%, 61.36%, 44.39%, 45.09% and 56.67% in these educational categories respectively as compared to 16.73%, 23.01%, 36.63%, 36.42% and 28.33% for PTI in the same categories. However, PTI enjoys majority among voters with educational qualification as M. Phil/PhD in the sample.
The connection between age group and vote choice sees a drastic change with the past trends. PTI had clear choice of younger voters in the past by-elections however in PP-30 Sargodha-III PML-N lead among voters from age group 18-22 and 23-35. PMLN is also a clear favorite for the age groups 35-50, 51-65 and 65+. Interestingly the age group of 18-22 showed polarized trend with 47.55% going to PML(N) backed candidate while 37.06% going to PTI candidate.
Interestingly the voter choices of different professional groups seem to toe the trends of previous by-polls. PMLN enjoys popularity among, unemployed, housewives, daily wagers, self-employed / farmers, Private Business, Government and Private jobs groups. PTI however has majority only among students and industry workers.
About CED: CED is a civil society coalition for voter education, election observation and strengthening democratic institutions. Its secretariat is based at CPDI