Exit Polls in PP-20 (Chakwal – I) By-Elections indicates PMLN retaining the Provincial Assembly Seat

Exit Polls in PP-20 (Chakwal – I) By-Elections indicates PMLN retaining the Provincial Assembly Seat

Tuesday (January 9, 2018)

The exit poll exercise conducted by the Coalition for Elections and Democracy (CED) in bye-elections of Provincial Assembly Constituency PP-20 indicates PMLN candidate polling more than 50% of the polled votes. The survey was conducted on a sample size of 773 voters; including 311 males, 454 females and 8 transgenders. The responses were collected from 45 sampled polling stations. Total number of polling station established in the constituency was 227.

The survey results show that PMLN candidate Haider Sultan Ali bagged 50% votes against the closest rival Raja Tariq Afzal from PTI who could get only 38% of votes. Nasir Minhas, candidate of Tehreek-e-Labbaik Ya Rasulallah, got 8% and ANP candidate Imran Qaisar is at 4th place with 3% votes. About 0.5% of the polled votes go to independent candidates.

The analysis of exit poll data shows some interesting trends. The gender breakdown of the exit poll result shows that 45% of male voters voted for PMLN as against 39% for PTI. 13% of male voters voted for TLP. PMLN seems to gain popularity among female voters as 58% females voted for PMLN as against 38% for PTI. TLP can get only 4% of the female votes.

The voting activity also has clear connection with educational qualifications of the voters. PMLN is a clear choice for 3 bottom educational groups that include illiterate, primary and matric. As the educational qualification increases, the voter base of PTI also increases. PTI enjoys majority among voters with educational qualification as Graduate, Masters and M.Phil/PhD. Interestingly, TLP vote bank although small exists in all education qualification groups.

As has been the trends in previous exit polls exercises, the voter choice also indicates a connection with the age group. 53% of young voters aged between 18 and 22 years voted for the PTI. PMLN could attract only 47% of the voters from this age group. PTI popularity reduces gradually in higher age groups. PMLN got 49% votes from age group 22-35 years as against 41% by PTI. PMLN was able to attract 53% voter from age group 36-50 years. PTI share remained 33% in this age group. PMLN biggest support came from age group above 65, where they were able to bag 66% of the polled votes as against PTI share of 24%

PMLN was also able to reverse the trends among occupational groups. The penetration among students group is striking where they were able to attract 73% of the students as against 22% by PTI. Students are normally considered as PTI largest vote bank, but the exit poll survey showed different trends. PTI largest support came from housewives. 41% of housewives voted for PTI as against 5% by PMLN

About CED: CED is a civil society coalition for voter education, election observation and strengthening democratic institutions. Its secretariat is based at CPDI

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